Connor Lokar, Senior Economist for ITR Economics, joined CEOtoCEO today to present the 2022 Economic Forecast.
For those familiar with Connor, he mentioned his previous presentation and his young appearance. He said that with his recent marriage, he is "looking older".
As a Senior Economist, he's been with ITR Economics for nearly 8 years. ITR Economics is a privately held, apolitical economic forecasting firm which provides private sector business leaders with economic information, insight, analysis, and strategy.
Connor said it will be a "Different" year, not necessarily a bad year. The main takeaway that Connor emphasizes is an upcoming deceleration in the economy for 2022-23 with leading indicators continuing to decline. However, the decline is more of a normalization, that "slowing growth is still growth". Inflation adjusted GDP growth in 2021 was 4.1%, whereas projected growth for 2022 is about half at 2.1%.
Connor discussed several items which could impact the U.S. economy in 2022 including: Covid policy, relations with China, climate change emphasis, infrastructure spending, and the national debt.
For those in the manufacturing or distribution sectors, Connor sees a continuation of the trend to onshore, near shore and re-shore to the U.S. and North America which bodes well for in market or near market manufacturing and sourcing. However, this may lead to additional inflation pressure since costs to manufacture elsewhere are typically lower.
ITR's "Silver Lining" approach to 2022 is that the deceleration in the economy may improve inflation pressure and slower growth will give supply chains time to correct. The slowdown from a demand perspective will allow the supply side of the economy to catch up or normalize. Connor said that "Maybe you [businesses] won't grow quite as quickly in 2022, but it might be a little more enjoyable along the way."
Connor highlighted and discussed several economic indicators, 11 out of 12, which are in decline in 2022 with the exception of Retail Sales which shows an increase.
Connor's forecast shares important data on: consumer spending, employee earnings, personal savings, business confidence, interest rates, inflation, employment costs, public sector construction spending, housing, demographics and population growth in the region, and more.
If you are a business leader, Connor's Economic Forecast includes information leaders need to plan, and make, strategic business decisions in 2022. This includes a slide (Phase C) that details what businesses should do in a period of "Decelerating Growth."
You won't want to miss this important presentation which includes his presentation slides, and Q & A session. Become a Premium Subscriber to have access to Connor's presentation and all future, and past, CEOtoCEO presentations!
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